• Home / Articulos publicados / From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America
  • From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America

    • From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America
      From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America
      From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-...
28/06/2021

[Artículo]

Los invitamos a leer el siguiente artículo que contó con la participación de la Dra. Olga Lucía Sarmiento.

Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the crossimpact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities). We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants’ perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise. Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, ‘healthy’ scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of ‘healthy’ scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes. The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.

Leer el artículo completo aquí

Noticias Recientes

  • MediUniandes y la Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá participaron en e

    Del 13 al 15 de agosto de 2025 se llevó a cabo en el Hotel Hilton de Cartagena el...

  • Éxito rotundo del curso “Otorrinolaringología: Medicina basada e

    Con una alta participación y un cuerpo docente de excelencia, la Facultad de Medicina...

  • Encuentro internacional: la Universidad de Toronto visita nuestr

    Recientemente, recibimos la visita de una delegación de la...

  • Red CiruAndes destaca en el 51° Congreso Semana Quirúrgica Nacio

    Del 6 al 8 de agosto en Bogotá se llevó a cabo el 51° Congreso Semana Quirúrgica...

  • Nueva profesora en el área de Anatomía, la Dra. Tatiana Pinilla

    Tatiana Pinilla, Médica egresada de la Fundación Universitaria Juan N. Corpas y...

  • Bienvenidas y despedidas en la Facultad de Medicina de la Univer

    Iniciamos el...

  • Convocatoria | Director/a del programa de Pregrado en Medicina

    La Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de los Andes abre convocatoria para el cargo...

  • MediUniandes presente en el Encuentro de Educación Médica organi

    El Dr. Diego Vivas, director de la carrera en Medicina de la Facultad de Medicina de...

  • Vacunación contra el VPH en Colombia: la cobertura aún es baja,

    En Colombia, la vacunación gratuita contra el Virus del Papiloma Humano (VPH) está...

  • Primeros graduados con el emblema de una gran alianza, Fundación

    Un hito para nuestra facultad

    A partir de ahora el logo de la...

  • ¡Bienvenidos a su alma mater!

    Después de 15 años, la primera generación de médicos de la Facultad de Medicina de la...

  • MediUniandes hace investigación con impacto en salud pública

    Recientemente, nuestro profesor Carlos Valencia (Ph.D en Epidemiología y Salud Pública...